Conference Tournament Primer

ACC

The Favorite - I've got to go with sheer talent here and take North Carolina. While they are certainly not a clear-cut favorite, they did win the regular season league title and they have 3 players on the All-Conference 1st Team. They were atop the polls before the season and will look to prove why this week. Should they need any more motivation, a number one seed will likely go to the winner of this conference, although they'll open the tournament in Greensboro no matter what happens this week.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - I don't know how much this counts, seeing as they were only 9-7 in the league, but the Wolfpack of NC State are ripe for the picking. They haven't beaten anyone all season that has made an appearance in the rankings. Their league scehdule was soft, only playing Duke, Florida State and Virginia once apiece. They were 7-3 in the league when they blew a huge lead against Duke, and then the wheels fell off. This team is NIT bound for sure.

The Gutsy Pick - In all likelihood, a sleeper pick in this league would need to beat UNC and Duke on consecutive days. The closest we've seen to that this year has been Florida State, beating both traditional powers within a week. The #3 team in a league usually isn't much of a sleeper, but with the up and down nature of this particular team, you'd be going out on somewhat of a limb picking them. However, it shouldn't surprise anyone if they make a run.

Need To Win It - After a coaching change and in the midst of an NCAA investigation, Miami has done an admirable job finishing 9-7 in the ACC. With such a top heavy league though, that may not be good enough. In this case, it definitely isn't. The 'Canes will find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble if they don't hoist the trophy in Atlanta on Sunday.

Make A Decision Man! - The teams are pretty evenly divided in the ACC between the tourney teams and non-tourney teams. What is yet to be decided on is where exactly the teams will be seeded. Virginia is squarely in the tournament, but they can play their way back into the "protected seed" range, or play their way into a non-favorable matchup and a possible quick exit in the Big Dance. An early loss in the conference tournament could lead to a 7 seed, or even the dreaded 8 seed.

Big East

The Favorite - No question here that Syracuse is the team to beat in the Big East. They've only lost one game all season, and it was without Fab Melo. Playing at Madison Square Garden is almost as good as a home game for the Orange. The only thing to play for at this point is placement on the seeding line, as Syracuse is virtually guaranteed a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. For lesser teams, that might be enough to distract them, but not Syracuse. After all the drama that they've been through this season, Syracuse should still win the Big East tournament, and make a hard push at the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - A 12-6 Big East record usually means you are a pretty formidable team. Consider this the exception to the rule. South Florida started the season 7-6, with losses to Penn State, Auburn, and Old Dominion. Against the top 4 teams in the Big East, the Bulls were 0-4. Against teams with at least an 8-10 record in the league, they are 3-6. The more telling part of this statistic is that because of the imbalanced schedule, they've 9 games against the bottom 6 teams in the league. If they get by the woeful team they play in the 2nd round, they'll lose in the quarterfinals.

The Gutsy Pick - If you want to go against the grain in this top heavy league, you don't want to look too far down the conference standings. Georgetown has wins over Marquette, and Notre Dame this season, and they took Syracuse to overtime at the Carrier Dome. In a one game scenario, Georgetown has proven they have the goods to compete with the uppser level teams in the conference, so they shouldn't be intimidated by anyone in this tounament.

Need To Win It - This is a sad place for the defending national champions to be sitting, but Connecticut is probably on the outside looking in right now. In my opinion, they'll need to make a run through this tourney like they did last year. With no Kemba Walker, that won't be an easy task. They have no horrid losses, plus good wins against Florida State, Notre Dame and Harvard. The problem is that going 8-10, even in the Big East, means you need to win your conference tournament to get your NCAA bid.

Make a Decision Man! - Usually a 9-9 record in a good league locks a bid up for you, but West Virginia is clearly a team that can play itself out of the NCAA tournament. 4 of their 9 league losses came to teams with sub .500 records, While only 3 of their league wins came against teams with winning records. They were 3-6 in total against the rest of the top half of the conference. With a game looming likely against UConn (assuming they get by DePaul), the Mountaineers could use a win to solidify their spot in the field of 68. A loss to either UConn or DePaul could send Huggy Bear and his boys to the NIT.

Big Ten

The Favorite - In a league with a three way tie for the regular season title, and the top 5 teams within 2 games of each other, it is hard to pick just one favorite. Michigan gets the nod here, because Ohio State and Michigan State have limped to the finish line, and Michigan State just lost a key contributor in Branden Dawson to an ACL tear. The Wolverines have shown they can play with and beat anyone in the league, so doing it again in Indy shouldn't worry them too much.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - Again, not much room for pretenders in the top half of this league, but Wisconsin seems to me like a team that can't win this tournament. They bore teams to death with their style and usually win via a war of attrition. They are also prone to long scoring droughts and have only one player who can create for himself when the game is on the line. Bo Ryan is a great coach, but his Badgers shouldn't count on taking any hardware back to Madison.

The Gutsy Pick - ATTENTION!!! HOMER ALERT!!! Call me a homer if you will, but nobody in the Big Ten is hotter than Indiana right now. The Hoosiers have won seven of eight games, and have won their last three by a combined 45 points. The Hoosiers are playing with great energy on defense and have enough offense to overpower just about any team. They've beaten each of the teams who tied for the regular season title, and are playing their best ball of the year at the right time.

Need To Win It - Poor Northwestern. They hosted the inaugural NCAA tournament, yet somehow have never played in it. In recent years they've really looked like they might make it, only to falter in the end. They beat Michigan State in their only meeting this year, but were 0-8 against the rest of the likely tourney teams in the league. Anything short of 4 wins and a title probably leave the Wildcats out this year...again.

Make A Decision Man! - Remember that dreaded #8 seed we talked about earlier. Purdue is sitting right about there with that last loss to Indiana. Certainly it isn't a lost cause, as it isn't unheard of for a #1 seed to lose before the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament, but it is still probably a good idea to try to get off that seed line. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, losing early probably won't move them down far enough. Winning a couple games certainly will move them up nicely.

Big 12

The Favorite - Eight straight regular season championships. 3-1 record against Baylor and Mizzou. Number one seed in their grasp, and solidified with the tournament win. It would be ridiculous to pick anyone but Kansas as the favorite right now. They've got so much to play for, I can't see Bill Self allowing his team to let up now. The Jayhawks haven't lost in over a month, and that streak probably won't end this week.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - They may have the latest Heisman Winner to their credit, but that magic won't translate over to the hardwood for Baylor. They've played 4 games against Kansas and Mizzou and lost all 4. They are only 2-2 against Kansas State and Iowa State. Not exaclty what you'd expect from a team many thought would win this league with as much talent as this roster is stocked with. They may win a game or two this week, but don't expect them to take home the trophy.

The Gutsy Pick - Of the top teams in this league, the only one that Iowa State couldn't solve was Mizzou. They've gone through the season trying desperately to earn the respect of the public and could use that a springboard to greater things. Is it likely to happen? No. But if you are the kind to take a risk, this is definitely a calculated one to take.

Need To Win It - What happened to Texas? They had a great run a few years back and then faded back to mediocrity. The Longhorns were 2-8 against the top 5 teams in the conference, and 0-6 against the top 3 teams. This is another team that loaded up on wins against cellar dwellers, and needs to outlast all of the big boys to steal a bid.

Make A Decision Man! - Frank Martin has got to be frustrated with a team that has beaten Mizzou twice and lost to lowly Oklahoma twice. Kansas State will hear their name called on Selection Sunday, but they could do themselves a favor by at least making it to the Big 12 semifinals. They have enough good wins to get some benefit of the doubt from the selection committee, but another statement or two this week will earn them much more favorable treatment.

Pac 12

The Favorite - This conference is just a mess. I'm taking the easy way out and just taking Washington as the favorites for the sole reason that they won the regular season championship. In all honesty, if any of 5 or 6 teams won this tournament, I wouldn't bat an eye.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - I wish I could pick everyone in this league for this category, but those aren't the rules I established for myself. Stanford started off well enough in the league, with a 5-1 mark. Then they finished with a thud with a 5-7 record since the middle of January. In a bad league, 10-8 doesn't look very good.

The Gutsy Pick - It is hard to go against talent and coaching in sports, and Arizona has them both. Sure, they started the season with an exhibition loss to Seattle Pacific, but they still have as much or more talent on their roster as anyone in this league. Sean Miller is one of the premier coaches in the country. I wouldn't count them out of winning 3 games in 3 days to land in the NCAA tournament.

Need To Win It - This could be almost anyone in this league, but for the sake of moving on, I'll go with Oregon. They had a gaudy 13-5 conference record, but since there are no good wins to be had in the Pac 12, we must look at the non-conference record of 9-3. The losses were all acceptable (Vanderbilt, BYU and Virginia), but those were their only chances at good wins. So let's review: No good wins out of conference, no good wins in conference and finished 3rd in the standings. That all equals a team that needs to win to be in.

Make A Decision Man! - I'm still not convinced that this is a league worthy of two bids. By virtue of finishing second in the league, California probably will make the tournament, but could play their way into a 10 seed with a few wins at Staples Center. I wish I didn't have to write that about a team that finished 13-5 in a supposed power league, but alas, I couldn't be spared that fate.

SEC

The Favorite - This isn't even close. Kentucky won this league by 6 games, they went 16-0 in conference, and looked almost unbeatable against even the better teams in the league. That isn't to say the Wilcats can't lose. They were pushed by Vanderbilt, Florida and Mississippi State this season, and they are a team of very young players who have a #1 seed locked up. With that said, it would be the biggest upset of them all if they don't claim another SEC Tournament title.

Don't Let The Record Deceive You - After starting the year off very nicely, Alabama came back to earth. They finished with 20 wins overall and 9 wins in the SEC, but feasted on the bottom of the barrel. They went 0-3 against the only three SEC teams assured of making the NCAA tournament and only went 3-2 against Tennessee and the Mississippi schools. Not all 9-7 records are made the same way.

The Gutsy Pick - Basically any team aside from Kentucky is a gutsy pick in this league, but Vanderbilt seems to be the one that makes the most sense. We know they are talented as evidenced by the 3 likely NBA players on their roster, but they couldn't seem to get it together all season. They have a dominating big man and a couple sharpshooters to compliment him, so if they get hot shooting the ball, they can beat anyone.

Need To Win It - Who would pick the #2 seed in a conference tournament as a team that needs to win it to get into the NCAA tournament? This guy, right here. You can't see, but I'm pointing my thumbs at myself. Anyway, Tennessee has little to show for themselves this season outside of a 10-6 record in the mediocre SEC. In a 17 day span they lost to Oakland, Pittsburgh, Austin Peay and College of Charleston. With only 18 wins to show for the season, they can't afford to lose this week.

Make A Decision Man! - I hate to kick a team while they're down (who am I kidding, no I don't), but Florida needs to figure out who they are...and quick. Three straight losses to end the season, coupled with an injury to Will Yeguete will not look good when deciding on seeding. They need to prove to the committee that they can regroup and start winning again. With nice showing in New Orleans, I can seed the Gators getting into the conversation for a protected seed. A poor showing will most certainly drop them into the 6-7 seed range.